Metals &Mining Alert:Daily prices and news,Chinese coal

作者:基金股票

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.98(+1.5%), copper $3.16(-0.3%), lead $1.12(-2.1%), molybdenum $7.14(+0.0%); nickel $5.33(+0.8%); zinc $1.41(-0.2%);

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.97(+1.4%), copper $2.96(+0.4%), lead $1.18(+2.9%), molybdenum $7.14(+0.0%); nickel $4.82(+2.2%); zinc $1.48(+0.9%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,272(+0.1%), silver $16.63(+0.3%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $610(+0.0%), SHFE Rebar $542(+0.0%), MB Scrap Index $295(+0.0%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $62(+0.0%), coking coal (/mt) $188(+0.0%), freight (BCI)2,618(-2.0%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $56.00(-0.2%), WTI (/bbl) $50.42(-0.3%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.90(-0.7%), thermal coal (/t) $97(+1.1%).。

    Precious (/oz): gold $1,290(+0.7%), silver $17.26(+1.5%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $625(-1.5%), SHFE Rebar $556(-1.3%), MB Scrap Index $298(+0.5%);

    Western Australian gold miners warn government of potential impacts from 50% royalty hike. Expecting massive job cuts and reduced exploration spend,companies have no choice other than trimming discretionary spending toneutralize the impact. With cost impact to companies ranging from A$20m toA$120m, Western Australian Chamber of Minerals and Energy warned that thehike could put 3k jobs at stake at spot gold price ($1,272/oz) and further 2k atrisk if price declines to $1,100/oz. Separately, Perth Mint, which refines morethan 90% of mined gold in Australia, sold 46.4koz of gold in Sept (vs. 23.1k inAug, -21% YoY). (Mining Weekly, Reuters)。

    Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $61(-2.9%), coking coal (/mt) $178(-2.0%), freight (BCI)3,186(+1.7%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $57.23(-1.6%), WTI (/bbl) $51.29(-1.4%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.87(+0.7%), thermal coal (/t) $97(+3.6%).China’s coal production rose in September to 298.1mt (+7.6% YoY and +2.5%MoM) on Chinese government ensuring sufficient supplies for the 19th partycongress. The output rise came despite a slowdown from two key producers,Shenhua Energy (cut ~9% YoY) due to its major operations disruptions, andChina Coal Energy (~3% YoY cut). Government aims to support “reasonable”coal prices via higher production. (Argus Metals)

    Global steel production expected to increase at average 1%/yr between nowand 2035, per World Steel Association (WSA). Crude steel output will reach2.0bn mtpa and finished steel 1.8bn mtpa from 2018-2035. 1H17production at1.12bn mt. China demand growth expected to be stagnant in coming years.Favorable energy reforms in Mexico that allow private investments and newcar projects could increase consumption of flat products. (SBB)。

    Barrick and the Tanzanian government agreed on a proposed framework forAcacia Mining operations (~64% owned by ABX, ~7% 2017E gold production).A new Tanzanian operating company would be created to manage Acacia’sthree mines, Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi and North Mara. The economic benefitsfrom those mines would be shared on a 50/50basis between the newcompany and the government, which will receive royalties and a 16% freecarry interest in the operations. Acacia is said to make a $300m payment to theauthorities to help resolve the outstanding tax evasion claims and a workinggroup will be created to settle the issue. Next step would be to have theconcentrate export ban lifted, and negotiations are still ongoing. (Company)

    US Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) prices declined in September on risinginventories and flat demand. Platts lowered its monthly assessment for USdomestic J55OCTG to $950-$1,000/st ex-works, down from $1,000-$1,050/st.Rising rig count in 1H17prompted purchases, which has now led to a build-upof inventory amid flattening demand. However, there could be some upside forprices when energy companies release 2018capex budgets. (SBB)。

    Nucor, US Steel, NLMK USA and CSI lift sheet prices by ~$40/st. This followsArcelorMittal’s announcement to set minimum base price of $625/st for Hot-Rolled Coil and $825/st for Cold-Rolled Coil. (AMM)

    US steel import permits totaled 3.0m st in September (-10% vs Augustimports, +9% YoY), including finished products of 2.4m st (-2%, +12%). Semis(-278kt, -30%) appear to decrease the most MoM, followed by coated sheets (-65kt, -15%) and cold-rolled sheets (-32kt, -14%), whereas, OCTG (+52kt, +20%)and light bar (+31kt, +207%) permits are increasing. (US import administration)。

    Merger of Equals transaction between Potash Corporation and Agrium Inc.was approved by India under the conditions that PotashCorp will divest someof its minority holdings in Arab Potash Company, Israel Chemicals, and SQMwithin 18months. PotashCorp owns ~32% of SQM shares. (Company)

    Kidman Resources announces scoping study results for Earl Grey lithium project, a 50-50JV with SQM in Western Australia. Construction could begin in1Q18and commercial production in 1Q19. With capex of $111m (given bySQM entirely), the Earl Grey project could deliver 288kt/pa spodumene over 25years. Next study to examine and factor a potential refinery as Kidman andSQM plan to build a refinery of 43kt LCE capacity near the deposit. (Company)Reliance Steel & Aluminum acquires Ferguson Perforating Company (FPC).Transaction terms undisclosed. FPC's 2016sales were $31m. (Company)。

    Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co plans to take a ~11.5% stake in TawanaResources for approx. $15.7m. Tawana has a 50% interest in the Bald Hilllithium and tantalum mine (Western Australia), and the first lithium shipment isexpected in late 1Q18. Integration in the lithium supply chain seems to bestarting.(Reuters, DB)

    AngloGold Ashanti entered into a sale and purchase agreement for variousassets in the Vaal River region (South Africa) to Harmony Gold Mining for$300m cash. This transaction is part of AngloGold’s strategy to focus on globalportfolio improvement, and extend mine lives and increase margins. RemainingSouth Africa operations will represent less than 15% of AngloGold’s expectedannual production. (Company)

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